Forget Black Friday: Holiday Shoppers Are Deciding Months Earlier in a New “Decision Season,” InMarket Study Finds

The data shows how price pressure, AI adoption, and generational divides are reshaping holiday spend ahead of Q4

Austin, TX – Traditional holiday marketing plans still ramp up around Black Friday. But new research from InMarket shows shoppers are moving faster than the marketing calendar: by October, two in three (66%) will have already started holiday shopping. InMarket calls this earlier window “Decision Season,” defined as the weeks when a marketer can still change what ends up in a holiday shopper’s cart. InMarket’s 2026 Holiday Shopping InSights report, developed in partnership with Kantar, breaks down what’s stretching Decision Season and giving brands a longer runway to earn a spot on shoppers’ lists:

• Higher prices are changing strategy, not shrinking demand. 70% say price increases are reshaping their holiday plans, but spending is holding steady: 28% expect to spend more than last year and 59% expect to spend about the same. The shift shows up in behavior, not budget: 58% say they’ll chase sales and coupons harder, and 46% plan to start earlier.
• AI has moved from novelty to habit for younger shoppers. About half of Millennials and Gen Z (50.8% and 49.1%) already plan to use it to shop the holidays, mostly to chase deals rather than brainstorm gift ideas. Gen X and Boomers+ use it less for now, but they’re the most open to starting, making them the audience with the most room to grow.

Two of these forces point to the same shopper: someone comparing prices longer and harder than in past years, whether they’re doing it manually or handing the job to AI. InMarket’s 2025 commerce data adds a wrinkle: the season now runs on two different clocks. Apparel and department store chains, Gap, Old Navy, Macy’s, and Best Buy among them, had their biggest week around Black Friday. The largest big-box, discount, and specialty retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Costco, told a different story: most didn’t hit their peak until the week before Christmas, alongside a gift card surge that hit seven times normal volume.

• No single moment on the calendar reaches every shopper. Gen Z leans on one event: 60% point to Black Friday as their go-to, compared with just 27% of Boomers+. Older shoppers play the long game instead, more than twice as likely to hunt deals continuously with no fixed date in mind (47% vs. 20% of Gen Z).

“By October, two-thirds of shoppers are already underway, so the consideration set is forming long before the deals land,” said Peter Hartt, SVP Client Strategy, InMarket. “That gives brands two jobs, not one: be top of mind through September and October when people are still deciding what to buy, then be present in-store when they actually buy it. The brands that only show up for the second job are bidding on a decision that could’ve already been made.”

The 2026 Holiday Shopping InSights report also includes channel-by-channel purchase intent, gift card timing and value, and additional generational spending splits.

Methodology

InMarket study conducted in partnership with Kantar, who provided the sample data. Based on an online survey of 1,983 US adults fielded in July 2026 and weighted to US Census demographics. Additional findings are drawn from InMarket’s commerce data.

About InMarket

InMarket is the outcome intelligence platform built for marketers who demand results over proxy metrics. By combining purchase, location, and behavioral signals from more than 200M consumers, including over 146M who share commerce data, alongside thousands of retail data points, InMarket powers smarter activation, faster measurement, and more advanced audience targeting across every screen. Accountable to outcomes, not media ownership, and verified by Forrester, InMarket closes the loop between media investment and real-world business growth. Trusted by brands across verticals. Available on leading platforms including TikTok, Snapchat, and Pinterest. In real time, every time.

Media Contact: Sammy Jordan | sjordan@inmarket.com