InMarket’s 2026 Holiday Shopping InSights
Don’t Miss Decision Season: How Holiday Shopping Got Turned Upside Down
Holiday shopping doesn’t start on Black Friday. It starts before the leaves change color in September and builds up to Halloween. InMarket calls this stretch Decision Season.
Decision Season
The weeks in which a marketer can still change what ends up in a holiday shopper’s cart.
September 2026
October 2026
Most marketing plans still spike around Black Friday. But shoppers are starting months earlier, building lists, browsing stores, and planning budgets.
The data shows that despite economic headwinds, buyer demand is still quite strong. The key is understanding how shoppers shop the holidays, and the influences and touchpoints in their decision-making process.
Decision Season rewards presence early to break into the consideration set, deals during the Cyber 5, and activation during the Final Dash.
Cyber 5
The five-day period between
Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday
November 2026
Final Dash
The week before Christmas,
when store visitation spikes²
December 2026
In this report, we’ll unwrap what’s shifting in the holiday shopping landscape¹: the emergence of AI, surging costs of living, and growing generational divides, and how these insights will not only help cutting-edge marketers show up for Decision Season, but outshine expectations in the most crucial shopping period of the year.
¹Source: InMarket study conducted in partnership with Kantar, who provided the sample data. Based on an online survey of 1,983 US adults fielded in July 2026 and weighted to US Census demographics.
²Source: InMarket commerce data, Jun 2025–Feb 2026. Visit index: weekly in-store transaction volume for each chain, indexed to its own June 2025 baseline (Jun 2025 = 100). Weeks run Monday through Sunday. Peak week is defined as the week with the highest index value across the full window. Black Friday week = week of Nov 24, 2025; pre-Christmas week = week of Dec 15, 2025. Top big box, discount and specialty retailers were ranked by total transaction volume during Nov 2025–Jan 2026 (B&M only): Walmart, Dollar General, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, Sam’s Club, Family Dollar, T.J. Maxx, Ross Stores, Marshalls.
Decision season is about deciding what to buy.
Decision Season arrives weeks before the Cyber 5 surge that traditionally has marked the start of the season. This is when shoppers are making their lists, browsing in-store and online, and buying their first gifts.
66% of shoppers will have started holiday shopping by October.¹
When do you plan to start your holiday shopping?¹
¹Source: InMarket study conducted in partnership with Kantar, who provided the sample data. Based on an online survey of 1,983 US adults fielded in July 2026 and weighted to US Census demographics.
Generational behavior
Gen Z waits for Black Friday, Boomers shop deals all season.
60% of Gen Z
name Black Friday as the event they rely on most, against
27% of Boomers+.¹
47% of Boomers+ shop deals as they come
with no event attached, against 20% of Gen Z.¹
Across all shoppers, 42% rely on Black Friday and 33% hunt continuously.¹
The economy
Good news: Price-pressured shoppers are spending the same or more.
28% of shoppers plan to spend more on holiday gifts than they did last year, and 59% plan to spend the same as last year.¹
49% of Gen Z & 36% of Millennials expect to spend more,
against 17% of Gen X and 12% of Boomers+.¹
In response to the economy, shoppers are editing their lists and deal hunting.
Seven in ten shoppers say higher prices have changed their holiday shopping plans.¹ But what changes is the size of their list and the route to it, not the decision to shop. Of the 70% who said higher prices have changed their holiday shopping plans¹:
Hunting, not reducing: 58% will shop sales and coupons more and 46% will start earlier¹
The list does compress: 47% will buy fewer gifts and 41% for fewer people¹
Only 26% trade down to store brands and 19% of all shoppers still plan to shop more stores than last year¹
Where they’re shopping
The store still dominates and
has the reach.
No channel is in a state of decline this season. The store remains the widest-reach holiday shopping channel and is still growing. The average shopper shops both online and in stores.
Where do you plan to shop this holiday season?
% of shoppers who plan to use each channel · shoppers use more than one
¹Source: InMarket study conducted in partnership with Kantar, who provided the sample data. Based on an online survey of 1,983 US adults fielded in July 2026 and weighted to US Census demographics.
How they’re shopping
Holiday shoppers are using AI more, but mostly as a deal-hunting tool
AI usage is growing with potential adoption highest in older shoppers.
Holiday shoppers who plan to use AI, and who is open to it.
Do you plan to use AI tools/chatbots to help with your holiday shopping?
Holiday shoppers using AI are doing so mostly for deal hunting and less for gift discovery.
32%¹
Find deals/price comparisons
20%¹
Gift ideas
4%
Something else
Ensure your holiday deals are indexable by AI crawlers.
What they’re shopping for
Clothing is the
top gift.
Black Friday 2025 belonged to apparel and department stores. Gap, Old Navy, American Eagle, Lululemon, Kate Spade and Victoria’s Secret all peaked the week of November 24, along with department stores (Macy’s and JCPenney) and Best Buy.²
What do you plan to buy this year?¹
¹Source: InMarket study conducted in partnership with Kantar, who provided the sample data. Based on an online survey of 1,983 US adults fielded in July 2026 and weighted to US Census demographics.
The Final Dash is the
last-minute gift grab.
While Decision Season starts early, based on last year’s data, visitation peaks later: during the Final Dash, the week before Christmas.
The week before Christmas belonged to the biggest names in retail. Eight of the ten top big-box, discount and specialty retailers peaked the week of December 15: Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, Dollar Tree, T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and Ross.²
The Final Dash: Weekly Visits by Retail Category
Visitation indexed to week of June 2, 2025
²Source: InMarket commerce data, Jun 2025–Feb 2026. Visit index: weekly in-store transaction volume for each chain, indexed to its own June 2025 baseline (Jun 2025 = 100). Weeks run Monday through Sunday. Peak week is defined as the week with the highest index value across the full window. Black Friday week = week of Nov 24, 2025; pre-Christmas week = week of Dec 15, 2025. Top big box, discount and specialty retailers were ranked by total transaction volume during Nov 2025–Jan 2026 (B&M only): Walmart, Dollar General, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, Sam’s Club, Family Dollar, T.J. Maxx, Ross Stores, Marshalls.
Gift Cards Peak
Twice, including 7x
in The Final Dash
Twice as many gift cards were bought over the Black Friday weekend: a real lift, though the card value didn’t change.³
But the week before Christmas 2025, seven times as many gift cards were bought compared to the weeks prior to Decision Season and it wasn’t just more cards: their average value also increased by 14%.³
Conclusion
Stop planning for Black Friday.
Start planning for Decision Season.
Timing is everything. Decision Season rewards the brands that start early and show up often. Black Friday leverages deals to drive sales. The Final Dash is where you catch the last-minute scramblers. Master all three, and you’ll generate the incremental visits, sales, and iROAS that matters most come January performance recaps.
Let’s make this your best holiday season ever.
Talk to a Decision Season expert today.
¹Source: InMarket study conducted in partnership with Kantar, who provided the sample data. Based on an online survey of 1,983 US adults fielded in July 2026 and weighted to US Census demographics.
²Source: InMarket commerce data, Jun 2025–Feb 2026. Visit index: weekly in-store transaction volume for each chain, indexed to its own June 2025 baseline (Jun 2025 = 100). Weeks run Monday through Sunday. Peak week is defined as the week with the highest index value across the full window. Black Friday week = week of Nov 24, 2025; pre-Christmas week = week of Dec 15, 2025. Top big box, discount and specialty retailers were ranked by total transaction volume during Nov 2025–Jan 2026 (B&M only): Walmart, Dollar General, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, Sam’s Club, Family Dollar, T.J. Maxx, Ross Stores, Marshalls.
³Source: InMarket 2025 commerce data. Analysis details: Each period is indexed against its own matched baseline. Black Friday weekend (Nov 28–Dec 1) compares to the average of the four prior Fri–Mon weekends; Christmas week (Dec 15–21) compares to the average of the four full weeks from Oct 27 to Nov 23. Baseline figures are weekly averages. Volume is gift card item count, value is spend per card.
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